Death of the p-Value? A Primer on Bayesian Statistics for Orthopaedic Surgeons

Accreditation Statement: The Orthopaedic Trauma Association (OTA) is accredited by the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education (ACCME) to provide continuing medical education for physicians.

Credit Designation:  OTA designates this enduring material for a maximum of 1 AMA PRA Category 1 Credits™. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity.

Successful completion of this CME activity, which includes participation in the evaluation component, enables the learner to earn credit toward the CME of the American Board of Orthopaedic Surgery’s Maintenance of Certification program. It is the CME activity provider's responsibility to submit learner completion information to ACCME for the purpose of granting ABOS credit.

MOC Claim Credit Deadline: 7/22/2029

Learning Objectives:

After completing this activity, learners will be able to:

1. Define Bayes’ statistics broadly as a parallel approach to statistical analysis to complement frequentist statistics
2. Describe Bayes’ theorem and the effect on pretest probability in interpreting statistical results, particularly in diagnostic testing
3. Define resources for appraising studies using Bayesian techniques and developing Bayesian approaches for future studies

Faculty:

• Moderator: Michael Polmear, MD
• Nathan O'Hara, PhD
• Terrie Vasilopoulos, PhD
• Gerard Slobogean, MD, MPH

Original release date: 7/22/2026

Expiration date: 7/22/2029

Estimated time to complete activity: 1 hour

Statement of Need/Description/or Summary of Gap Analysis

Statistical interpretation is foundational to evidence-based medicine. Frequentist and Bayesian statistics are two major approaches for
hypothesis testing. Bayesian studies are increasingly common in orthopaedic literature with a 4-fold increase in the last 10 years.
Investigators and readers are relatively less familiar with Bayesian statistics. However, the Bayesian approach can align with clinical
decision-making by interpreting smaller but meaningful differences that are not limited by dichotomous p-values and ‘trends toward
significance.

Both methods follow a workflow that includes sampling, hypothesis testing, interpretation, and iteration. The methodologies diverge in
application of prior knowledge and multiple hypothesis testing in Bayesian statistics.

This session will introduce Bayesian principles and Bayes’ theorem, define how pretest probability and prior information may inform
diagnostic testing using an example from prosthetic joint infection, contrast Bayesian and frequentist approaches using an example
from the VANCO trial and other studies, and describe the criteria for critically reviewing Bayesian studies.

Method of Participation: There are no fees for members to participate in this activity. Non-members must pay $40. To participate in the activity, physicians will be required to take the following steps:

• Read the learning objectives and faculty disclosures.
• Participate in the activity.
• Complete the activity evaluation.
• Participants who successfully complete the evaluation will receive AMA PRA Category 1 Credits™.

Disclosures:

The Orthopaedic Trauma Association has implemented a policy to comply with the current Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education (ACCME) Standards for Integrity and Independence in Accredited Continuing Education requiring mitigation of all conflicts of interest. Faculty declaring a relevant commercial interest must be identified in the activity syllabus and/or program.

In accordance with disclosure policies of OTA and the ACCME, every effort has been made to ensure all CME activities are balanced, independent, objective, and scientifically rigorous. These policies include complying with ACCME’s Standards for Integrity and Independence in Accredited Continuing Education and mitigating all relevant conflicts of interest for all individuals in control of content.  

All of the relevant financial relationships listed for these individuals have been mitigated

Disclosures are available on the "Disclosure" tab.

Disclaimer: The information in this educational activity is provided for general medical education purposes only and is not meant to substitute for the independent medical judgment of a physician relative to diagnostic and treatment options of a specific patient's medical condition. The viewpoints expressed in this CME activity are those of the authors/faculty. They do not represent an endorsement by the OTA.  In no event will the OTA be liable for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided through this CME activity.

Commercial Support: There is no commercial support for this activity